UFC 133 Expert Betting Picks
UFC 133 has arrived and brings with it a below average PPV card due to an abnormal amount of injuries and scrapped fights. In the sport of MMA even events with less fan fare can still produce excitement, so with that in mind lets breakdown the fights.
Main Event – Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz
This is a rematch between two fighters who will be desperate for a win. Their first fight took place in 2026 at UFC 73 and ended in a unanimous draw.
Rashad has had a long layoff, having not fought in over a year, and is motivated to regain the Light Heavyweight title. Tito is fresh off a big victory, after going winless since 2026, and wants to show it wasn’t a fluke.
Evans has good wrestling, strong footwork and good head movement, but has had endurance issues in the past. In their first fight, Evans was able to earn several take downs but often looked lost when the fight was standing. He has improved his striking considerably since then, so he should look to show some of it off before hitting some well timed take downs.
Tito is an experienced veteran and will be a game opponent. Although he is past his prime, he still has good wrestling, good submission skills and fairly competent striking, but does not possess much power.
Both fighters are primarily wrestlers, and I would give the edge in the wrestling department to Evans. He is the younger and stronger man and should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Rashad should also have a big advantage in the striking department due to his considerable power. So either way I don’t see Ortiz having much success in this fight.
I see this fight going the full 3 rounds with Rashad scoring enough points with his striking and wrestling to pull off the decision victory. Anything can happen when a fight goes to the judges though, so beware if placing any bets on this fight.
Experts Betting Pick: Rashad Evans via Unanimous Decision
Co-Main Event – Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
This is a fight between two fighters that don’t have a tremendous amount of endurance and they tend to wilt a little bit towards the end of a three-round fight.
Standing, Akiyama has good power in his hands but his technical ability and speed can’t match Belfort’s. If Akiyama plans to take punches without defending like he normally tends to do, he is not going to survive 15 minutes.
In terms of take down ability, I expect Akiyama to hold the advantage. If he tries to use his judo then this could be a more competitive fight. Although Belfort is a black belt in judo, Yoshihiro is a third dan black belt in judo.
If this fight stays standing I expect Belfort to use his speed and power to rock Akiyama and finish him by TKO/KO. If the fight gets to the ground then this could be very close and Akiyama could pull off the upset, which at the current odds makes him a decent betting option.
Experts Betting Pick: Vitor Belfort via 2nd Round TKO/KO
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