UFC 135 Fight Breakdowns and Picks
On Saturday, March 24, 2026 the UFC Light Heavyweight title will be on the line when champion Jon "Bones" Jones meets challenger Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. Here’s how I see that fight and some of the other matches on the main card unfolding.
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Main Event – Light Heavyweight Championship – Jon Jones vs. Quinton Jackson
This is a highly anticipated title fight between two fan favorites. Both have good wrestling and striking backgrounds, which could make this a very exciting stand up war.
 Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (32-8-0) is a former UFC Light Heavyweight champion with a strong wrestling base, and devastating punching power. He is notorious for disregarding the submission aspect of MMA and puts most of his focus into going for the knockout. While Rampage is a very good striker, he relies solely on his boxing and doesn’t throw many if any kicks. This combined with the fact he lacks a submission game shows he hasn’t evolved much since he first came into the sport. Where he does have an advantage in this fight is experience, having been in the sport since 2026 and having fought and won against many elite fighters.
Jon "Bones" Jones (13-1-0) is one of the most well rounded and exciting young fighters in the sport. His only career loss is a disqualification in a fight he was dominating, so he has never truly been defeated by another fighter. Jones is a super athletic specimen with great striking, wrestling and decent submissions. Being the younger and more well rounded fighter combined with the fact he has a good chin means he has a very good chance of winning this fight.
I give Jon Jones the edge in every aspect of this fight except maybe punching power. So unless Jackson can get lucky with one of his hay-makers and score a knockout, I think Jones should win this fight either by TKO/KO or unanimous decision.
Experts Betting Pick: Jon Jones via 3rd Round TKO/KO.
Josh Koscheck vs. Matt Hughes
Matt Hughes (45-8-0) is a former two-time UFC Welterweight champion and UFC Hall of Famer. The most dominate welterweight in MMA history next to Georges St-Pierre, Matt Hughes is a very good wrestler who also possesses great submission skills. His biggest weakness has always been his striking which has not evolved much over the years and that will be a big problem in this fight. Now 37 years old and past his prime, Matt can’t overpower all his opponents like he used to but he is still competitive and a challenge for anyone in the division even at this stage of his career.
Josh Koscheck (15-5-0) is a very strong wrestler with a great collegiate wrestling background, being a NCAA Division I champion and four-time NCAA Division I All-American. This gives him the edge in the wrestling department, but where he has the biggest edge is in the striking. Koscheck has good striking and very good power in his punches. While he can be sloppy at times and throws a lot of wild hay-makers, he is still miles ahead of Matt Hughes in the striking game.
Koscheck is the bigger, younger, faster, and stronger wrestler. He is also the better striker, and most of Hughes’ latest losses have been by getting outclassed in the stand up which leads to him getting knocked out. I expect the same thing in this fight with Josh Koscheck winning by TKO/KO.
Experts Betting Pick: Josh Koscheck via 1st Round TKO/KO.
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi
Nate Diaz (13-7-0) is The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 winner and is a lot better than his record indicates. Possessing a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Cesar Gracie, he is a very talented submission grappler. He also uses pretty good boxing to beat up his opponents on the feet. The biggest problem for him is his wrestling, since he can be taken down fairly easily by any competent wrestler.
Takanori Gomi (32-7-0) was the last and only Pride Lightweight Champion and is a four-time All Japan Combat Wrestling champion. Once considered the top lightweight fighter in the world Gomi’s stock has fallen in recent years, but he is still a very dangerous opponent. His striking is fairly wild and sloppy but he has lots of power in his hands. He has a good wrestling background but doesn’t always use it to his advantage, preferring to strike and go for the knockout most of the time.
While Gomi is a dangerously powerful striker, Nate Diaz has a very good chin and should enjoy a distinct reach advantage. If the fight stays standing Diaz will frustrate Gomi with his long reach and unorthodox boxing style. If the fight goes the to ground it will most likely end up with Diaz submitting Gomi.
Experts Betting Pick: Nate Diaz via 2nd Round Submission.
Rob Broughton vs. Travis Browne
Travis Browne (11-0-1) is a powerful and dangerous striker, who also possesses a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. This means he should be fine wherever this fight takes place. He has finished most of his fights by knockout, so he prefers to stand and strike more often than not.
Rob Broughton (15-5-1) is very tough and fairly well-rounded fighter. He has good wrestling and an iron chin which makes him very hard to finish.
Browne should be able to use his size and striking advantage to dictate the pace of this fight. He should most likely be able to win a unanimous decision, with a TKO also a definite possibility.
Experts Betting Pick: Travis Browne via 1st Round TKO/KO.
Mark Hunt vs. Ben Rothwell
Mark Hunt (6-7-0) is a very one dimensional fighter, relying solely on his kickboxing to win fights. He was the 2026 K-1 World Grand Prix Champion, so his kickboxing is world class, and he also has an iron jaw which makes him a very dangerous opponent to strike with. The main weakness with Hunt is his ground game, and if he gets taken down he is usually in big trouble against anyone with basic submission skills.
Ben Rothwell (31-7-0) is a very large and well-round heavyweight. He is not amazing in any one skill but is competent in enough of them to remain a threat against most opponents. Being such a large man he has lots of power in his strikes, but he will need to use his grappling advantage in this fight.
I expect Rothwell to play it smart in this fight and try to take it to the ground, where he should be able to handle Hunt fairly easily. If Mark Hunt can keep this standing then he actually has a punchers chance, but I don’t think that will happen. Rothwell should be able to get the take down and end this fight with an early submission.
Experts Betting Pick: Ben Rothwell via 1st Round Submission.
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